Predicting deer-vehicle collisions in an urban area

Collisions with deer and other large animals are increasing, and the resulting economic costs and risks to public safety have made mitigation measures a priority for both city and wildlife managers. We created landscape models to describe and predict deer-vehicle collision (DVCs) within the City of Edmonton, Alberta. Models based on roadside characteristics revealed that DVCs occurred frequently where roadside vegetation was both denser and more diverse, and that DVCs were more likely to occur when the groomed width of roadside right-of-ways was smaller. No DVCs occurred where the width of the vegetation-free or manicured roadside buffer was greater than 40 m. Landscape-based models showed that DVCs were more likely in more heterogeneous landscapes where road densities were lower and speed limits were higher, and where non-forested vegetation such as farmland was in closer proximity to larger tracts of forest. These models can help wildlife and transportation managers to identify locations of high collision frequency for mitigation. Modifying certain landscape and roadside habitats can be an effective way to reduce deer-vehicle collisions.     

Stronger predation in the tropics shapes species richness patterns in marine communities

Species interactions are widely assumed to be stronger at lower latitudes, but surprisingly few experimental studies test this hypothesis, and none ties these processes to observed patterns of species richness across latitude. We report here the first experimental field test that predation is both stronger and has a disproportionate effect on species richness in the tropics relative to the temperate zone. We conducted predator-exclusion experiments on communities of sessile marine invertebrates in four regions, which span 32 degrees latitude, in the western Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea. Over a three-month timescale, predation had no effect on species richness in the temperate zone. In the tropics, however, communities were from two to over ten times more species-rich in the absence of predators than when predators were present. While micro-and macro-predators likely compete for the limited prey resource in the tropics, micropredators alone were able to exert as much pressure on the invertebrate communities as the full predator community. This result highlights the extent to which exposure to even a subset of the predator guild can significantly impact species richness in the tropics. Patterns were consistent in analyses that included relative and total species abundances. Higher species richness in the absence of predators in the tropics was also observed when species occurrences were pooled across two larger spatial scales, site and region, demonstrating a consistent scaling relationship. These experimental results show that predation can both limit local species abundances and shape patterns of regional coexistence in the tropics. When preestablished diverse tropical communities were then exposed to predation for different durations, ranging from one to several days, species richness was always reduced. These findings confirmed that impacts of predation in the tropics are strong and consistent, even in more established communities. Our results offer empirical support for the long-held prediction that predation pressure is stronger at lower latitudes. Furthermore, we demonstrate the magnitude to which variation in predation pressure can contribute to the maintenance of tropical species diversity.     

Differences in stress tolerance and brood size between a non-indigenous and an indigenous gammarid in the northern Baltic Sea

Differences in stress tolerance and reproductive traits may drive the competitive hierarchy between non-indigenous and indigenous species and turn the former ones into successful invaders. In the northern Baltic Sea, the non-indigenous Gammarus tigrinus is a recent invader of littoral ecosystems and now occupies comparable ecological niches as the indigenous G. zaddachi. In laboratory experiments on specimens collected between June and August 2009 around Tvärminne in southern Finland (59°50′N/23°15′E), the tolerances towards heat stress and hypoxia were determined for the two species using lethal time, LT₅₀, as response variable. The brood size of the two species was also studied and some observations were made on maturation of juveniles. Gammarus tigrinus was more resistant to hypoxia and survived at higher temperatures than G. zaddachi. Brood size was also greater in G. tigrinus than in G. zaddachi and G. tigrinus matured at a smaller size and earlier than G. zaddachi. Hence, there are clear competitive advantages for the non-indigenous G. tigrinus compared to the indigenous G. zaddachi, and these may be further strengthened through ongoing environmental changes related to increased eutrophication and a warming climate in the Baltic Sea region.     

Estimating California ecosystem carbon change using process model and land cover disturbance data: 1951-2000

Land use change, natural disturbance, and climate change directly alter ecosystem productivity and carbon stock level. The estimation of ecosystem carbon dynamics depends on the quality of land cover change data and the effectiveness of the ecosystem models that represent the vegetation growth processes and disturbance effects. We used the Integrated Biosphere Simulator (IBIS) and a set of 30- to 60-m resolution fire and land cover change data to examine the carbon changes of California's forests, shrublands, and grasslands. Simulation results indicate that during 1951-2000, the net primary productivity (NPP) increased by 7%, from 72.2 to 77.1 Tg C yr⁻¹ (1 teragram = 10¹² g), mainly due to CO₂ fertilization, since the climate hardly changed during this period. Similarly, heterotrophic respiration increased by 5%, from 69.4 to 73.1 Tg C yr⁻¹, mainly due to increased forest soil carbon and temperature. Net ecosystem production (NEP) was highly variable in the 50-year period but on average equalled 3.0 Tg C yr⁻¹ (total of 149 Tg C). As with NEP, the net biome production (NBP) was also highly variable but averaged −0.55 Tg C yr⁻¹ (total of -27.3 Tg C) because NBP in the 1980s was very low (-5.34 Tg C yr⁻¹). During the study period, a total of 126 Tg carbon were removed by logging and land use change, and 50 Tg carbon were directly removed by wildland fires. For carbon pools, the estimated total living upper canopy (tree) biomass decreased from 928 to 834 Tg C, and the understory (including shrub and grass) biomass increased from 59 to 63 Tg C. Soil carbon and dead biomass carbon increased from 1136 to 1197 Tg C.Our analyses suggest that both natural and human processes have significant influence on the carbon change in California. During 1951-2000, climate interannual variability was the key driving force for the large interannual changes of ecosystem carbon source and sink at the state level, while logging and fire were the dominant driving forces for carbon balances in several specific ecoregions. From a long-term perspective, CO₂ fertilization plays a key role in maintaining higher NPP. However, our study shows that the increase in C sequestration by CO₂ fertilization is largely offset by logging/land use change and wildland fires.     

Stochastic gravity models for modeling lake invasions

Freshwater aquatic systems in North America are being invaded by many different species, ranging from fish, mollusks, cladocerans to various bacteria and viruses. These invasions have serious ecological and economic impacts. Human activities such as recreational boating are an important pathway for dispersal. Gravity models are used to quantify the dispersal effect of human activity. Gravity models currently used in ecology are deterministic. This paper proposes the use of stochastic gravity models in ecology, which provides new capabilities both in model building and in potential model applications. These models allow us to use standard statistical inference tools such as maximum likelihood estimation and model selection based on information criteria. To facilitate prediction, we use only those covariates that are easily available from common data sources and can be forecasted in future. This is important for forecasting the spread of invasive species in geographical and temporal domain. The proposed model is portable, that is it can be used for estimating relative boater traffic and hence relative propagule pressure for the lakes not covered by current boater surveys. This makes our results broadly applicable to various invasion prediction and management models.     

The relationship between agricultural intensification and biological control: experimental tests across Europe

Agricultural intensification can affect biodiversity and related ecosystem services such as biological control, but large-scale experimental evidence is missing. We examined aphid pest populations in cereal fields under experimentally reduced densities of (1) ground-dwelling predators (-G), (2) vegetation-dwelling predators and parasitoids (-V), (3) a combination of (1) and (2) (-G-V), compared with open-fields (control), in contrasting landscapes with low vs. high levels of agricultural intensification (AI), and in five European regions. Aphid populations were 28%, 97%, and 199% higher in -G, -V, and -G-V treatments, respectively, compared to the open fields, indicating synergistic effects of both natural-enemy groups. Enhanced parasitoid: host and predator: prey ratios were related to reduced aphid population density and population growth. The relative importance of parasitoids and vegetation-dwelling predators greatly differed among European regions, and agricultural intensification affected biological control and aphid density only in some regions. This shows a changing role of species group identity in diverse enemy communities and a need to consider region-specific landscape management.     

Multinomial mixture model with heterogeneous classification probabilities

Royle and Link (Ecology 86(9):2505?C2512, 2005) proposed an analytical method that allowed estimation of multinomial distribution parameters and classification probabilities from categorical data measured with error. While useful, we demonstrate algebraically and by simulations that this method yields biased multinomial parameter estimates when the probabilities of correct category classifications vary among sampling units. We address this shortcoming by treating these probabilities as logit-normal random variables within a Bayesian framework. We use Markov chain Monte Carlo to compute Bayes estimates from a simulated sample from the posterior distribution. Based on simulations, this elaborated Royle-Link model yields nearly unbiased estimates of multinomial and correct classification probability estimates when classification probabilities are allowed to vary according to the normal distribution on the logit scale or according to the Beta distribution. The method is illustrated using categorical submersed aquatic vegetation data.     

A synthesis of current knowledge on forests and carbon storage in the United States

Using forests to mitigate climate change has gained much interest in science and policy discussions. We examine the evidence for carbon benefits, environmental and monetary costs, risks and trade-offs for a variety of activities in three general strategies: (1) land use change to increase forest area (afforestation) and avoid deforestation; (2) carbon management in existing forests; and (3) the use of wood as biomass energy, in place of other building materials, or in wood products for carbon storage. We found that many strategies can increase forest sector carbon mitigation above the current 162-256 Tg C/yr, and that many strategies have co-benefits such as biodiversity, water, and economic opportunities. Each strategy also has trade-offs, risks, and uncertainties including possible leakage, permanence, disturbances, and climate change effects. Because approximately 60% of the carbon lost through deforestation and harvesting from 1700 to 1935 has not yet been recovered and because some strategies store carbon in forest products or use biomass energy, the biological potential for forest sector carbon mitigation is large. Several studies suggest that using these strategies could offset as much as 10-20% of current U.S. fossil fuel emissions. To obtain such large offsets in the United States would require a combination of afforesting up to one-third of cropland or pastureland, using the equivalent of about one-half of the gross annual forest growth for biomass energy, or implementing more intensive management to increase forest growth on one-third of forestland. Such large offsets would require substantial trade-offs, such as lower agricultural production and non-carbon ecosystem services from forests. The effectiveness of activities could be diluted by negative leakage effects and increasing disturbance regimes. Because forest carbon loss contributes to increasing climate risk and because climate change may impede regeneration following disturbance, avoiding deforestation and promoting regeneration after disturbance should receive high priority as policy considerations. Policies to encourage programs or projects that influence forest carbon sequestration and offset fossil fuel emissions should also consider major items such as leakage, the cyclical nature of forest growth and regrowth, and the extensive demand for and movement of forest products globally, and other greenhouse gas effects, such as methane and nitrous oxide emissions, and recognize other environmental benefits of forests, such as biodiversity, nutrient management, and watershed protection. Activities that contribute to helping forests adapt to the effects of climate change, and which also complement forest carbon storage strategies, would be prudent.     

Application of an environmental impact assessment methodology to a site discharging low levels of radioactivity to a freshwater environment in Norway

Significant shifts in opinion regarding environmental protection from ionising radiation have resulted in the development and availability of bespoke approaches for the assessment of impacts on wildlife from radioactive contaminants. The application of such assessment methodologies to actual situations, however, remains relatively limited. This paper describes the implementation of the ERICA Integrated Approach and associated tools within the context of routine discharges of radioactive materials to a freshwater environment. The article follows the implementation through its relevant stages and discusses strengths and weaknesses of the approach in relation to the case study. For current discharge levels, ¹³⁷Cs and ⁶⁰Co constitute the main dose contributors to the majority of reference organisms studied, although ²⁴¹Am and ³H are the main contributors for the phyto- and zooplankton categories. Patterns are observed depending on whether the reference organism is sediment-associated or not. At current discharge levels, none of the reference organisms exceeded or approached the selected screening level, and impacts on biota could be regarded as negligible.     

Mercury concentrations in oligohaline wetland vegetation and associated soil biogeochemistry

Concentrations of mercury were determined in above- and below-ground tissues of dominant plant species, as well as soils, in the wetlands of Lake Maurepas, Louisiana. Indicators of wetland soil biogeochemical status, such as soil redox potential, pore-water nutrient concentrations, and pore-water total sulfides, were also determined. Total mercury concentrations in plant tissues were within the typical range for vegetation not exposed to mercury contamination. Similarly, total mercury concentrations in soils were typical of uncontaminated wetlands within this geographic region. Soil methyl mercury levels in this study are slightly lower than those reported in other studies of nearby wetlands. This may reflect the less extensive geographic sampling in this study, or the low water levels in the Lake Maurepas system immediately prior to and during this study, which would have altered soil biogeochemical status. This is corroborated by measurements of soil redox potential and soil pore-water nitrogen and sulfur constituents conducted during this study that suggest minimal sulfate reduction was occurring in surficial soils. This study indicates that the wetlands surrounding Lake Maurepas are typical of many uncontaminated oligohaline wetlands in the southeastern U.S. in regard to mercury concentrations.